DETERMINATION OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISM DEMAND IN TURKEY: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

Accordingly, the main objective of this study is to reveal the determinants of international demand in the tourism sector, which is an important source of income for Turkey, together with other developing countries. Within the scope of the study, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Egypt are also considered since they have similar economic structures and their tourism structures are similar to Turkey. The dependent variable of the study is the “number of international tourism arrivals” as an indicator of international tourism demand for each country. “International tourism expenditures (current US$)”, ‘International tourism, revenues (current US$)’, ‘GDP (current US$)’ and ‘International tourism, number of departures’ are used as independent variables in the study. The data used in the study consist of annual data for the period 1995-2023. The data used in the study were obtained from the World Bank, UNWTO and annual data for 2020 and beyond were obtained from each country's own statistical agency. Since the data set of the study consists of both time series and cross-sectional data, panel data analysis is used. The results show that international tourism revenues have a significant effect on tourism demand. The study also found that the number of international departures has a negative impact on tourism demand. This indicates that an increase in the number of Turkish citizens traveling abroad reduces international tourism demand. On the other hand, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is found to have a negative impact on international tourism demand. This is elaborated in the scope of the study. Finally, tourism expenditure does not have a significant impact on tourism demand.